38 % in favor of Independence in Quebec according to last poll

The poll, published in Le Devoir, found that if a referendum found that 38 percent of Quebec voters would vote in favor of sovereignty if a referendum were held on the issue. Half of respondents (51 percent) still side against sovereignty (and separation from Canada), while another 10 percent were unsure.

Polls on Quebec independence have shown steady backing for sovereignty, ranging from the high 20s to the low 30s. Last June, Léger put support at 32 percent, up from 27 percent in December 2020.

51 % of Quebecers are against Quebec sovereignty

Percentage of Quebecers by their answer to the the statement, “If a referendum were held on Quebec sovereignty, would you vote against or in favor of Quebec sovereignty?”

In favor 38%

Against 51%

Don't know 10%

Note: Poll conducted from Feb. 24-26 with a sample of 1,044 Quebec adults. The margin of error is ± 3.0 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

The Léger data also exposed a major challenge for the sovereignty movement.

Quebec (overall)

In favor 38%

Against 51%

Don't know/prefer not to answer 10%

18-34 years

In favor 31%

Against 49%

Don't know/prefer not to answer 20%

35-54 years

In favor 34%

Against 55%

Don't know/prefer not to answer 11%

+55

In favor 45%

Against 50%

Don't know/prefer not to answer 5%

Almost half of the voters between the ages of 18 and 34 are against sovereignty; 31 percent are in favor. It’s probably worth noting the last Quebec referendum was in 1995, before many in this cohort were born.

Among voters aged 35 to 54, 34 percent were in favor and 55 percent against.

Only among voters over 55 — those who lived through the constitutional battles of the 1980s and 1990s — do we find a statistical tie: Fifty percent against, 45 percent in favor.

Only 14 percent of the younger cohort support the PQ; 16 percent support the Bloc Québécois, the PQ’s cousins at the federal level. In both cases, the sovereigntist parties rank a distant third.

The poll suggests most pro-independence voters don’t back the party whose raison-d’être is and remains separation from Canada: Eighty-five percent of PQ voters support independence, while 93 percent of Liberals oppose it.

The numbers get trickier with the two other parties at the National Assembly.

Among CAQ voters, 42 percent would support independence if it were held to a vote, and 52 percent would vote against.

Parti Québécois supporters most in favor of sovereignty

Parti Québécois

In favor 85%

Against 9%

Don't know/prefer not to answer 6%

Québec solidaire

In favor 43%

Against 45%

Don't know/prefer not to answer 13%

Coalition Avenir Québec

In favor 42%

Against 52%

Don't know/prefer not to answer 6%

By blocs

Quebec (overall)

In favor 38%

Against 51%

Don't know/prefer not to answer 10%

Conservatives

In favor 22%

Against 72%

Liberals

Against 93%

The other significant point is the one of the pro-independence Quebec Solidaire. Poll after poll has shown that around half of QS voters support the party for its socialist policies, and would vote against independence. In this newer poll from Léger, 45 percent of QS voters oppose Quebec independence, while 43 percent are in favor.

Fuente: LegerMarketing

The TM eLab is an initiative of the Olaso Dorrea Foundation, which offers its heritage to the Basque pro-sovereignity movement.