The census figures for Northern Ireland released last September show Catholics, broadly understood, at 45.7%, and Protestants, or people brought up in the Reformation culture, at 43.5%. Ten years earlier, the figures were 48.45% Protestant and 45.1% Catholic.
The statelet that was officially designed in 1920 to have a permanent Protestant-unionist majority has failed the test of time. During the ensuing century, nationalists of all stripes have complained that they were not even consulted about the partition of the island and their leaders have always advocated for reunification.
The census results are significant, but they are far from the whole story. Today, one person in fifteen – a growing number – living in the North was born outside of the United Kingdom and Ireland, and there is a vibrant Muslim community accounting for 0.5% of the population.
A recent major professional study involving polling and some in-depth interviews, led by The Irish Times in collaboration with the Royal Irish Academy and the Keough-Naughton Centre for Irish Studies at the University of Notre Dame – they use the acronym ARINS – provides some interesting perspectives on the Irish unity question.
A clear majority of those interviewed living in the South favor unity and in a border poll would vote accordingly.
It is important to realize that this strong showing may well wobble when they realize what they have to give up in terms of flags and anthems and the poll measures feelings prior to clear information on the costs to the Irish exchequer. Nevertheless, it is fair to assume that a referendum in the South would very likely show that a clear majority supports unity.